At the end of Day 2, I suggested that while it was a good position for India to be in, they would also be frustrated by how much further ahead they could have been had they done a couple of things differently. At the end of Day 3, they have seemingly run away with the game, thanks in large part to an injury to Morne Morkel which has put him out of action for 7-10 days.
What a difference having 3 seamers (each bowling reasonably well) makes! Let me give you an alternative account of this Test Match.
India were 280 all out before lunch on the 2nd day. South Africa were 130/1. India had Zaheer Khan and other ordinary fast bowlers, and Ashwin. As they actually did on Day 2, Amla and Smith saw off the new ball and built a stand. Then, with the 2 other fast bowlers bowling poorly in helpful conditions - bowling too short, getting carried away by the carry - South Africa's score would mount. Ashwin would be brought on. Within the first 100 overs of the Innings, Ashwin would bowl about 22, for nearly 90 runs. By the end of Day 3, South Africa would finished their first innings at about 490 all out, and India would be 30/2. On the 4th day, with uneven bounce, more than one of the specialist batsmen would be undone early, and India would lose by 10 wickets after some late runs from Ashwin.
Ashwin would end the Test wicket 2/120 and a half century. Zaheer would end it with 5 wickets. India would have Kohli's century to savour from the 1st innings. And everybody, all Indian fans, would be talking about how the batting failed. We would fret, not about Kohli runs, but about Pujara's slow scoring rate in the 1st innings (and also the 2nd - he was 9 in 61 balls, and 31 in 100, before he got to hit boundaries off Tahir and Duminy). We would have fretted about the shot Rohit Sharma played, not the long hops Ishant Sharma bowled.
In Away Tests in England, Australia or South Africa in the last 20 years (not counting the ongoing Test at Wanderers), India averaged 32 runs per wicket, or an average first innings total of 320. Only Australia and South Africa have done better. In the last 10 years, South Africa have the best record, while India, England and Australia all averaged between 310 and 319. With the ball, India concede 430 in the first innings of Tests in Australia, South Africa and England in the last 10 years. Only West Indies, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have done worse. No other team has conceded more than 380.
You see, on average, India's batsmen have played their 3rd innings about 120 runs behind in Tests in Australia, South Africa and England in the last 10 years, despite doing as well as every team other than Australia with the bat during this period.
In the last 5 years, this gets even worse. They've conceded an average total of 548 in the first innings, while their batting has collapsed to 234! This is a good statistic for those who argue that the batting is to blame. It gets better for this argument if you only consider innings when India batted first. They averaged 185. When they bowled second, they conceded 604 for 10 dismissals. This, I suggest is down to India last 2 tours of Australia and England.
The value of having quality seamers in the 2nd and 3rd bowling positions is far greater than having a world class opening pair, especially on wickets where there is perhaps a window of 25-30 overs out of 80 in which quality fast bowling is difficult to keep out.
That hour after tea, when Ishant Sharma, Mohammad Shami and Zaheer Khan ran through the South African specialist batting, has broken this Test match open. With a deficit of 36, Smith was unlikely to be able to attack as much as he would have liked. Then, once he lost Morkel, Smith must have known he was in trouble. Duminy, Tahir and deVilliers bowled 23 overs for 102 between them. Had Morkel been available, I doubt that they would have bowled more than 10. India would probably have been closer to 200 than 300, and closer to Ashwin than Dhawan in their batting order. I would still have been a strong position - a lead of about 250 with about 5-6 wickets in hand.
Losing Morkel cost South Africa about 50 runs on Day 3. Having a strong 2nd and 3rd seamer, gained India about 200 runs. It is hard to understate the value of being able to keep threatening the batting for 30-35 overs, as opposed to just with spells by 1 bowler. Both Morkel (by his absence) and Ishant and Shami (by their wonderful presence) showed this.
Test Cricket is a bowler's game. I am not in the least bit surprised by India's batsmen. The openers failed in both innings. Pujara and Kohli have faced 631 balls between them so far and been dismissed by a bowler once. They've done with aplomb the best that batsmen can do - survive.
I get the sense that India's fans are stunned by the first three days at Johannesburg. I must confess that I'm pleasantly surprised by Ishant Sharma's bowling. I like this Ishant Sharma. I hope the old one has been banished for good. I had little doubt about Kohli or Pujara. 106 overs, 356 runs, for one dismissal out of 4 possible ones to bowlers so far, is perhaps a few more than I expected.
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